Harmful algal bloom predicted

PUT-IN-BAY — A scientist at a Stone Laboratory meeting Thursday predicted a mild to moderate harmful algal bloom in Lake Erie this summer, which is in line with relatively small blooms in the last few years. Rick Stumpf, a scientist with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, predicted a bloom this year that will be a 3 on a scale of 1-10 with a possible variation of 2 to 4. A 3 would put the bloom right on the border between "mild" and "moderate," Stumpf explained. If the forecast hits the mark, the bloom this year will be a bit less than the 2024 bloom, Stumpf said. As of June 22, there's no sign that the bloom has arrived yet, Stumpf said. Something noticeable should show up around July 10. It's likely that the bloom will peak in August and will continue into September, he said, although scientists aren't good yet at forecasting when blooms will end. "The bloom should be confined pretty much to the western basin," Stumpf said. Stumpf emphasized two points: The bloom won't be everywhere. But when you see blue-green scum in the water, take the potential toxins seriously. Winds will push the bloom around Lake Erie, but there will be many places that are not affected at any given time. But when you do see bloom scum on the surface of the water, don't forget that the cyanobacteria blamed for the harmful algal bloom creates toxins. It is very important for health and safety reasons to keep your pets, your children and yourself out of the water when you see the bloom, Stumpf advised. Stumpf said the forecast takes into account the normal rain that is expected to take place in July. If it rains in July, that probably doesn't mean the forecast will change. Stumpf said the 2011 harmful algal bloom is the worst one that occurred in the last few decades. That was made clear when scientists reprocessed data for the last couple of decades to make sure it was consistent, Stumpf said. Blooms from 2020 to 2024 have been relatively small, but that's mostly because there has been less rain, reducing the amount of water flowing into western Lake Erie, Stumpf said. The amount of dissolved reactive phosphorus, a key chemical component of harmful algal blooms, has fallen by 5% to 10%, and that's good news, Stumpf said. But progress needs to continue, he said. If there's a wet spring in 2026, there will be a bigger bloom, Stumpf said. Gov. Mike DeWine's H2Ohio program has included components such as educating farmers to use only the amount of fertilizer that's necessary and restoring wetlands, which serve as a natural filter for water flowing into the lake. The amount of measured dissolved bioavailable phosphorus was below the state target for the first time in the last five to ten years, said Nate Manning, currently serving as director of the National Center for Water Quality Research at Heidelberg University. "This is really great news for progress being made in dissolved reactive phosphorus in Ohio," Manning said. One uncertainty in whether that progress will continue is that while DeWine wanted $270 million for H2Ohio to keep the program going, lawmakers cut that figure to $165 million in the final two-year budget passed Wednesday. Chris Winslow, director of Ohio Sea Grant and Stone Laboratory, said it's too early to say how the budget cut will affect the program but said it's likely restoration of wetlands will slow down.