Lake Erie algal bloom forecast released

SANDUSKY — Scientists are predicting a Lake Erie harmful algal bloom that will be moderate to above moderate in size this summer, similar to last year's bloom. Algal blooms are defined by the National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences as excessive growths of algae in a body of water. They're harmful because the algae deplete oxygen in the water, which can kill fish and other aquatic life. The prediction for this year is that the severity will be a 5, on a scale of 1-10. The likely range of severity is 4.5 to 6, said Rick Stumpf, a scientist from NOAA, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. If there is a large rain in July, it could be as severe as a 7. Heavy July rain is considered unlikely but possible. Severity refers to the size of the bloom during the 30-day peak of the bloom. So that index takes into account the total biomass, but the formula also uses how long the bloom lasts, Stumpf said. The largest blooms in recent years were in 2011, rated as a 10, and in 2015, which was scored as a 10.5. Stumpf said blooms in recent years have begun earlier and he said this year's bloom already has begun in two places: In Sandusky Bay and along the Lake Erie coast in the Monroe, Michigan, area. The situation is Sandusky Bay has become complicated in the last few years and scientists are trying to figure out what's going on. "An early start does not necessarily lead to a larger bloom, but it does mean the bloom lasts longer," Stumpf said. By comparison to this year's forecast, last year's bloom was rated as a 5.3. That was a little higher than the forecast. This year's forecasting models have been modified to take new conditions into account. In recent years, blooms have been developing earlier in July, the peaks occur earlier and the peaks last longer, Stumpf said. Higher lake temperatures are one of the factors for why the blooms start earlier and last longer, although there are other factors that are being studied, he said. Stumpf offered two observations about how the bloom will affect people out on the lake and on the shore. He said it's important to remember that the bloom will not cover all of Lake Erie. "It's not the whole lake, it's not the whole Western Basin," Stumpf said. The whole lake will not be covered in green slime from Toledo to Buffalo, he said. But if you do find yourself in an area with green slime, remember that it has toxic elements. Keep your dog, your children and yourself out of the water if you see green scum, he said. The actual location of the bloom varies a lot from year to year, and scientists aren't very good yet at predicting where the bloom will spread, Stumpf said. Ohio Beach Guard, a map maintained by the health department, shows locations which have advisories and where people are advised not to swim, both because of bacteria and because of the presence of toxic algal blooms. Every year, a forecast for the size of the lake bloom is provided by an annual event at Stone Laboratory at Put-in-Bay. The forecast is announced to a small crowd at Stone Laboratory and also broadcast by video. Laura Johnson, director of the National Center for Water Quality Research at Heidelberg University in Tiffin, also spoke, reporting results of the water monitoring for phosphorus. The forecast is based upon the phosphorus put into the lake by the Maumee River, although the water lab monitors water conditions at 16 locations. Johnson said the area had heavy rain in April but that rainfall decreased since then. The amount of bioavailable phosphorus that feeds algal blooms is the middle, neither very high or very low, compared to previous years, she said. The amount of phosphorus put into the lake is considered a key factor in the size and growth of harmful algal blooms, which are created by cyanobacteria which use photosynthesis. Efforts to reduce the size of the harmful algal blooms are being carried out in a number of ways, including more precise use of fertilizer by farmers and construction and renovation of wetlands, which serve as natural filters for Lake Erie tributaries feeding into Lake Erie. The amount of phosphorus going into the lake remains higher than the goal set for phosphorus reduction, and the public will have to be patient as those efforts continue, Johnson said. An email newsletter, created by Stumpf and issued for years, is issued during much of the summer to monitor the size and location of the harmful algal bloom. The website for signing up for the bulletin is at coastalscience.noaa.gov/science-areas/habs/hab-forecasts/lake-erie/, or try shorturl.at/NL9Dn.