Little ice expected this winter on Lake Erie

SANDUSKY — Lake Erie's unusually low amount of ice cover is expected to continue for the rest of the winter — and that's part of a long-term trend, federal scientists say. As a result, it's likely there won't be much opportunity for ice fishing this year, a local fish scientist said. While the amount of ice covering the lake still varies sharply from year to year, the overall trend is that ice cover is decreasing, a development that seems to be connected to climate change, according to James Kessler, a physical scientist at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Great Lakes Research Lab in Ann Arbor, Michigan. Kessler, an ice specialist, said the Great Lakes have averaged having 10% of their surface covered on Jan. 1. But at the start of this year, only 0.35% of the Great Lakes were covered in ice, a historic low. Kessler cautions that it's early in the season for Great Lakes ice. Ice cover over the lakes tends to peak in February or March, he said. A graphic shows average ice cover for the Great Lakes for the past 50 years (red line) versus current ice coverage (the dark line at the bottom.) Provided/NOAA January may seem like a solid winter month, and one might assume that a Great Lake should be frozen by now. But, as he explained, "Water retains heat for a long time. It takes a long time to freeze." Lake Erie 'sort of does its own thing' Although the administration does not forecast ice cover on the lakes, another federal agency does. The U.S. National Ice Center, located in Suitland, Maryland, provides ice forecasting for the U.S. government and issues ice forecasts for all of the Great Lakes, including Lake Erie. The ice center's winter of 2023-24 seasonal outlook forecast, issued on Dec. 1, provides forecasts for each of the Great Lakes. It predicted slightly above normal temperatures for Lake Erie for December through February. It reported that ice conditions on the lake will be "below normal." In addition, the National Ice Center circulates 30-day forecasts twice a month: on the first and the 15th of the month. The January 30-day forecast, issued on Dec. 29 by Environment Canada, indicates that air temperatures over the Lake Erie surface were above normal in December and were expected to remain above normal in January. The agency is predicting low amounts of ice in Lake Erie, although Sandusky Bay will have thin ice from Jan. 16-24. Because Lake Erie is more shallow than the other lakes, it tends to freeze more easily, Kessler said. "Lake Erie sort of does its own thing," he said. Citing climate change Kessler points out that there's still plenty of variance from year to year on ice cover in the Great Lakes. While the winter of 2023 saw only 20% ice cover, the lakes had ice cover of 81% in 2019. Ice cover in 2021 and 2022 was less than in 2019 but hovered at average levels, he said. But there are now 50 years of data on ice cover in the Great Lakes. And the trend toward less cover in the lakes appears to be statistically significant with the maximum amount of ice cover going down 5% over 10 years. While Kessler cautions that he is not a climatologist, he believes the decline in ice cover over the Great Lakes is related to climate change. Climate change takes place over a 30-year time period, and there are five decades of data, he said. Administration climatologist Alisa Young, who also works in the Ann Arbor office, said she agrees global warming is playing a role in the reduction of Great Lakes ice, although it's not the only factor. "When considering data from 1970 to present, (Great Lakes) ice coverage has been declining by about 5% per decade. The multi-decadal decline in Great Lakes Ice cover is consistent with global upticks in air temperature," Young wrote in an email. "Despite the decline, the Great Lakes still experience swings of higher than average ice cover as observed in 2014 and 2019," Young said. "Another factor influencing the 2023-24 seasonal Great Lakes ice coverage includes El Nino conditions," Young added. "As given by the current winter outlook produced by (the administration's) Climate Prediction Center, the Great Lakes, among other parts of the U.S., are expected to experience warmer-than-normal temperatures this winter, which will impact environmental conditions that influence Great Lakes ice formation." What about ice fishing? While it's unlikely there will be weeks and weeks of ice fishing available this year in the Sandusky area, it's still possible there will be a brief opportunity if a cold snap hits in February or March, said Brian Schmidt, a fisheries biologist for the Ohio Department of Natural Resources' Sandusky Fisheries Research Unit. "If we have a season for ice fishing, it's probably going to be a short window, two or three weeks," Schmidt said. The central basin of Lake Erie is still at 40 degrees, so it has a long way to go to cool down, he said. "It's extremely warm for this time of year," he said. The western basin of the lake will cool down faster, and a brief cold snap is possible, he said. "Whether or not it will be enough to form safe ice is difficult to say," he said. Despite the poor current prospects for ice fishing on Lake Erie, the Fishingbooker.com website just published an article, "The 10 Best US Ice Fishing Destinations for 2024," which lists the area of Erie and Ottawa counties at No. 2, said Jill Bauer, public relations manager for Shores & Islands Ohio, the local tourism bureau. "Too bad Mother Nature doesn't seem to be on our side this year," Bauer said. Normally, Shores & Islands Ohio doesn't get many calls about ice fishing, but when conditions are right, interest picks up. "As soon as the shanties start appearing … they are all over social media," Bauer said.