Housing picture isn't pretty

Editor's note: Firelands Forward is a regional workforce development collaborative whose goal is to grow the region's economy by connecting a stable skilled and supported labor force to meaningful and sustaining employment. You might remember our November article in the Register when we asked "Where is the affordable housing?" Well now we know we have an answer — and it's not good. In early 2023, Firelands Forward retained Bowen National Research firm to conduct a comprehensive three-county housing study that included Erie, Huron and Ottawa Counties. The regional economy has been trending positively in the past several years and, thus, has increased pressure on the housing market. Bowen is a national research firm based out of Columbus that specializes in large-scale housing assessments. It used a variety of methods, including a regional survey gathering more than 600 respondents from community members like you, stakeholder interviews, site analysis, demographic study, etc. Its focus was to help our region understand the housing landscape so that we can develop impactful solutions to help us retain our talent and attract new talent so that we can continue to grow as a region. Accessible housing stock across all income brackets is a critical ingredient in the recipe for economic success. We know housing is an issue across the nation, Ohio and certainly here. But before we can address it, we have to know what the specific challenges are and the data behind them. This housing study paints that picture for developers, policymakers and real estate experts. We now can develop an actionable, cohesive plan that will address these challenges and take advantage of the forward momentum in our community already. How many homes are needed? So, what does the housing study say? There are a couple of key takeaways that highlight the need for a regional strategy. An analysis determined that our region will require an additional 6,000 single-family homes and 4,000 additional rental units over the next five years. We call the percentage of available rental units in a given community the "vacancy rate." Our vacancy rate highlights the lack of rental units across the region across all income brackets but particularly prevalent is the lack of low-income rental units. The Firelands region's vacancy rate is 0.4%. Comparatively, Bowen states that a healthy rental market consists of a rental vacancy rate of between 4% and 6%. Similarly, the lack of homes available for sale in the area shows that the area's housing market is on the unhealthy side. The area's for-sale housing market has significant inventory issues. At the time of the study, there were only 217 for-sale homes across the three-county area. This represents a 0.4% availability rate in which Bowen states a healthy market consists of a for-sale inventory of between 3% to 4% of all homes. Furthermore, inventory is not the only challenge facing the housing market, but housing prices have soared over the past four years. Median home prices have increased: • 51.2% in Ottawa County • 34.8% in Erie County • 25.7% in Huron County What's the solution? The good news is that with challenges come opportunities, and there is a real opportunity for both short- and long-term solutions that can increase inventory across all income brackets. "One thing the study does for the region is help articulate that there is a very real market here with the potential for profitable development projects across our region," Erie County Economic Development Corp. executive director Abbey Bemis said. "This will help us attract outside developers, particularly large-scale developers who specialize in multi-unit projects." This study is the galvanizing tool that will help the community develop a cohesive, regional strategy to improve the housing landscape and continue to drive development throughout our three-county region. Where to learn more At 2 p.m. Thursday, community leaders are meeting at BGSU Firelands to hear an in-depth analysis of the study from Bowen National Research firm's CEO, Patrick Bowen. On June 7, community leaders will gather at the county level to begin to formulate strategies and solutions that will act as a catalyst to close the 10,000-unit gap in our region to ensure the sustainable success of Erie, Huron, and Ottawa Counties in the future. If you want to delve more into the issue, the study will soon be published at firelandsforward.com.