Lake algal bloom smaller this year

SANDUSKY — Scientists are forecasting a relatively small harmful algal bloom in western Lake Erie this year, one that will be smaller than last year's. The early forecast, issued Wednesday from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and the National Center for Water Quality Research at Heidelberg University, offered a tentative forecast this year's bloom will be a 4 or less in size. Last year's bloom was rated a 7.5. The final forecast will be issued July 9. In the meantime, the forecast will be refined as scientists factor in the effect of rain in May and June. "We project that the bloom will be smaller than last year (2019). Our models indicate a likely severity of 4 or less, but the uncertainty in these forecasts indicate a potential severity of up to 6, (still less than 7.5 seen in 2019). Rain events are expected for the rest of May and into June, and are included in the forecast," according to the forecast. "There is still uncertainty in the projected maximum severity because of limitations in forecasting the exact location and amount of rainfall the rest of May. As we add data over the next two months, this uncertainty will decrease. Any bloom that develops will change with time and move with the wind, and we provide information on the presence and location of any bloom throughout the summer," the bulletin states. While March had a few large storm events, April did not bring much rain, said Laura Johnson, director of the National Center for Water Quality Research. Large rainstorms washing large amounts of nutrients into the lake are a big factor in feeding larger algal blooms. The forecast relies on water sampling from Lake Erie tributaries collected and analyzed by the National Center for Water Quality Research. That effort has been hampered by the pandemic, Johnson said. The Heidelberg University campus has been closed, and researchers have tried to limit the amount of time spent in the laboratory, she said. Johnson said the center has concentrated on water sampling from the Maumee River and its tributaries, the main source of information for the algal bloom forecast. In normal years, scientists such as Johnson and Richard Stumpf, a NOAA scientist who created the algal bloom forecast email, gather at Stone Laboratory near Put-in-Bay in July to announce the final forecast for Lake Erie's algal bloom. This year, Stone Laboratory has announced plans to do a virtual event for the forecast, rather than gathering scientists into the same room, Johnson said. The forecast likely will be announced on July 9, she said.